Retired United States General Stanley McChrystal talks through the new kind of war, one that doesn’t need bombs to kill.
Former Joint Special Operations Command commander warned that cyber warfare has already erased the boundaries of traditional conflict and society hasn’t caught up. McChrystal says the rules of war have fundamentally changed.
“The reality is the battle space, as the military would call it, has just expanded. It’s almost limitless now.”
No frontlines and no real safe zones. No clear separation between war and peace. And yet, he says, most people still don’t see cyber as a real threat.
“If it’s cyber, that it is maybe espionage or maybe crime or maybe just irritating.”
That perception, he adds is dangerously outdated, especially because the worst case scenarios haven’t yet hit everyday life in the West.
McChrystal laid out the possibilities of what cyber warfare could soon look like, not just stealing data, but taking civilian lives.
“What if we turn off their pacemaker? What if we disable the hospital? What if we cause water or food to be contaminated?”
These aren’t theoretical risks, they are capabilities that could erupt as cyber tools get better. And when they do, the response could spiral out of control quickly.
“If enough things happen, people are going to want to act… some cases are going to act kinetically.”
For now, major cyber incidents have been disruptive, but not devastating enough to trigger mass reaction. McChrystal says a large scale event, whether it be financial, military, or infrastructure related, could flip public sentiment overnight.
“I think one that turns out to have a big military effect or a big financial effect, that will be the tipping point.”
He added that even prolonged disruption, like power outages or transport shutdowns, could push society to the edge and to breaking point.
As attacks intensify, so will pressure to respond, including the possibility of crossing national boundaries, a move that raises serious geopolitical risks.
“We could easily find an appetite grow for doing operations inside sovereign countries that are either unable or unwilling to take action.”
At the same time, private companies may not wait for governments. McChrystal revealed some have already explored offensive capabilities.
“There’s going to have to be a more aggressive offensive part, but it is going to have to be very controlled.”
Layer artificial intelligence on top of cyber threats, and the risks multiply.
“We’re not ready for AI.” He cautioned that AI could concentrate power in unprecedented ways, giving a small number of individuals or organisations outsized control over wealth, influence and information.
“You could gather wealth, you can gather influence, you can gather power, and I could have none.”
Still, he acknowledged AI could also be used for accountability…even suggesting it could fact check political leaders in real time.
‘What if AI fact checks everything that politicians say and do?’
As of today, there are no clear rules governing cyber conflict or AI. McChrystal says the world is behind again, and running out of time.
“We need the equivalent for the march of technology… a doctrine of thought, common understanding, what’s right, what’s wrong, what’s not allowed.”
“We’re going to have to do it pretty quickly.”
Cyber war isn’t coming… it’s already here. It’s invisible, borderless and extremely capable of real world destruction.
